I spent ~20 hours learning about nuclear for a job application, and thanks to anki, it’s all still in my brain ~2 months later, so so cool!!!
Below is incomplete and probably wrong in various places - I’m just writing out what is currently relevant - to write out everything would be tedious. It’s very cool to me how this is all in my head!!! The below is with 0 internet/ChatGPT
Israel & nuclear weapons
Israel has nukes (but hasn’t declared them, they have a policy of “nuclear opacity”. They have, if memory serves, ~90 plutonium-based warheads.)
Israel like… shouldn’t have nukes, according to the most important nuclear weapons treaty, the NPT
The NPT
The NPT (non proliferation treaty) came into force in 1970. The most important nuclear treaty
It allows certain countries to be NWS (nuclear weapons states) - those that had nuclear weapons in 1967, when the NPT was first like… agreed to
US, Russia, France, England, and a fifth one… China?
The NPT involved the agreement of “hey, countries without nukes, agree to the NPT, agree to be officially NNWS (non-nuclear weapons states), and in return we’ll give you access to nuclear technology via the IAEA, as long as you agree to regular checkups (article III of the NPT)”
The NPT is kinda good, kinda bad
Good
It prevented JKF’s prediction in 1963 that “by 1975, 15-20 countries will have nukes” - turned out to be something like 8
The NPT led to various countries that were pursuing nukes to agree to stop
Bad/failing
However, the “grand bargain” has been failing, because the point has been “hey, non-nuclear states, promise not to make nukes and in return a) we’ll help you re: nuclear tech and b) we promise we’ll work on disarming ourselves (article VI)” - and that did happen for a while after the nuclear weapons peak in the 80s, but now there’s a new arms race - Russia, US, China, North Korea (and maybe also India, Pakistan, and a few others) are actually increasing their stockpiles right now, in a big way. They say this is the most dangerous time re: nuclear war since the Cuban Missile Crisis
Also, it has failed to prevent all NNWS from developing nukes. There are countries that aren’t in the 5 countries that are allowed nukes according to the NPT, and developed nukes anway:
- North Korea, India, Pakistan, Israel, maybeee another one or two
Iran and nuclear
Iran is not allowed to have nuclear weapons, as per the NPT
Iran was cooperating with the IAEA as part of the NPT article IV bargain which is “all countries possess the inalienable right to nuclear technology”. “If they agree to CSAs & optional APs, the IAEA will help them re: nuclear tech”
However, in the late 1990s or early 2000s, Iraq (?) was found to be lying to the IAEA
And then I think Iran was found to be, too?
The compulsory check for NNWSs is the CSA (comprehensive safeguard agreement), and there is an additional and better “additional protocol”
Iran was complying with the IAEA additional protocol until somewhat recently when they suspended it
The CSA is less thorough and checks for “correctness” re: what a country reports re: their nuclear capability. An AP is more in depth and checks for “completeness”, that is, looks for undeclared, illegal fissile material, gas centrifuges, etc
My model of Israel vs Iran
I really don’t know much here
My model of Israel
If I had to guess - Israel is modern, democratic, liberal values, aligned very strongly with the US.
Israel has a very advanced military (mandatory service for 1 year? Huge support from the US? Israel is very wealthy? (E.g., big tech sector/startup scene, I think?))
My model of Iran
Iran is very different - super religious, super authoritarian? Religious leadership, I saw recently that they banned dogs. Probably don’t allow women to be in positions of power, etc?
Iran is probably an enemy of America. How come?
Ideological differences
Who are Iran’s allies?
Trump and the Iran nuclear deal
JPSOA or something like that - a deal with Iran to lessen sanctions in exchange for Iran complying re: nuclear. The aim was to make Iran’s “breakout time” (time required to make 1 nuclear warhead, or perhaps the time to acquire enough enriched fuel for a warhead (typically uranium enriched to 90%?)) to be 1 year.
Either Iran pulled out of the deal, or Trump stopped it, calling it the worst deal ever
A new deal has not been signed, and Iran stopped complying with the optional IAEA AP (additional protocol), and have been caught (somehow?) with enriched uranium up to like 20% and 60%, which is higher than needed for nuclear power plants. Also they’ve been increasing their inventory of gas centrifuges, which is how you enrich uranium
Why would Israel proactively attack Iran?
I guess they must be long-term enemies
I don’t know anything about their history of fighting
I assume they are both big players in the middle east, so there’s huge rivalry
What would attacking Iran achieve?
Kill military leadership
Weaken infrastructure
Destroy weapons
To what end?
Idk… does attacking a country increase its ability to see things your way?? I would assume not. I guess it’s a “attack them first” thing. If Iran are stockpiling nukes, then Israel needs to strike early, cripple their infrastructure, buy time
Oh another one - maybe Iran is pro-Palestine, maybe Iran has been e.g. helping arm Hamas?
Why now?
Seems like a very costly/unusual time for Israel to do full-on attacks on another country, considering the Israel-Palestine crisis
I would assume that Israel is struggling for political support right now - pretty sure lots of Western countries decried their aid block on the Palestinians, which was leading to a mass famine
Perhaps striking Iran could win Israel more support from regional allies (who are there regional allies?)
Who are Israel’s regional allies?
Man, I need to make some flashcards re: countries of the middle east. Definitely the region of the world that I’m the most ignorant about
I would assume that any capitalist country would be on Israel + America’s side, and any religious state would be pro-Iran? So like, Saudi Arabia may be allied with Israel? (I’m pretty sure Saudi is very religious, but also very like… pro-luxury…)
I feel like I could do this forever
There are so many questions to ask, but it feels kinda draining so I’ll stop there
2. PREDICTIONS
1. One of the top 3 reasons ChatGPT gives for Israel striking Iran is to slow Iran’s progress re: nuclear armament
I’m gonna give this a… 70%. Seems pretty likely.
✅ - ok, I realised that I can’t ask ChatGPT about something that literally happened ~yesterday, but from reading the BBC news article, the strikes are literally strikes on their nuclear facilities (all I knew was that Israel struck Iran)
2. The NPT’s NWS are the US, Russia, China, England and France
I’m 80% sure. Part of me is like “was China this on top of things by 1967?”, as my model is that China has only ascended again (after their “century of humiliation” (?)) recently. But I guess 1967 is pretty recent. Note that I know almost nothing about China !! That’ll be a very fruitful one soon
✅ - I should have said the UK, not England, but you know what I mean. I feel like as an English I’m allowed to be wrong here lol, I obviously do know about Wales + Northern Ireland + Scotland
3. Iran still complies with the IAEA CSA
Hmmm, this is tricky. They definitely stopped the AP. But it might be very costly, and santion-inducing, to stop doing the CSA, as the CSA is mandatory as per the NPT. To stop that would mean you don’t get the cooperation of the IAEA
I’m gonna say I’m 60% sure they still do the CSA.
Wrong! ❌
Reduced IAEA access to key monitoring equipment
Cameras, seals, and other devices were disabled or removed.
Withheld data and footage from IAEA surveillance
Even equipment that remained recorded data, but Iran refused to share it.
Delayed or denied site access outside declared facilities
Which limits the IAEA’s ability to verify there’s no covert activity.
4. Israel has a population of <64 million
My model is that the UK has ~64million and the US has ~330million.
So this is a “Israel has a smaller population than the UK” thing
My assumption is that Israel is quite a bit smaller than the UK, size-wise
70%
✅ Verdict: True — and very conservative
As of 2024–2025, Israel’s population is about 9.7 million.
5. The capital of Israel is Tel Aviv
95%
❌ SHIT!
Israel officially designates Jerusalem as its capital, and most government functions (like the Knesset, Supreme Court, and Prime Minister’s office) are located there.
However, for decades many countries did not recognize Jerusalem as Israel’s capital due to its disputed status with Palestinians, who also claim East Jerusalem as the capital of a future state.
As a result, many embassies were historically located in Tel Aviv — which is why it’s often mistakenly assumed to be the capital.
6. The capital of Iran is Tehran
99%. The only city I’m aware of
✅
7. Israel and Saudi Arabia are allies
60%
ChatGPT says:
No formal alliance or diplomatic relations (yet)
Israel and Saudi Arabia do not have official diplomatic relations.
There are no embassies, no defense treaty, and no open alliance.
But: quiet cooperation behind the scenes
Since the early 2010s, Saudi Arabia and Israel have cooperated informally, especially on:
- Countering Iran, which both see as a strategic threat.
- Intelligence sharing and airspace coordination.
- Support for U.S.-led normalization efforts (e.g., the Abraham Accords, which Saudi Arabia supported indirectly).
I’m gonna say I was ✅ correct - they cooperate, they’re not enemies, they’re allied against Iran. That was what I was aiming at (I swear!)
8. Israel is striking Iran in part because Iran is pro-Palestine
80%
✅ correct
“Iran’s support for Hamas, a Palestinian militant group, is a military issue for Israel — not just a matter of political solidarity with Palestine.”
9. Iran is a key ally of Hamas (e.g., helping arm them)
80%
✅
Iran is widely recognized as a major backer of Hamas, particularly in the following ways:
Financial support: Iran provides tens of millions of dollars annually to Hamas.
Weapons and military training: Iran supplies arms, technology, and training to Hamas militants — often via smuggling routes through Sudan, Syria, and Lebanon.
Strategic alignment: Both oppose Israel’s existence and view resistance (including armed struggle) as justified.
10. Women are not allowed to be in politics in Iran
90%
❌
What women can do:
Run for parliament (Majlis) — dozens have served as members.
Serve as vice presidents or cabinet-level advisors (in non-security roles).
Vote and join political parties.
Participate in local and city councils.
What women cannot do:
Run for president — women have consistently been disqualified by the Guardian Council, despite no explicit constitutional ban.
Hold top roles in the judiciary, military, or religious leadership.
Serve as supreme leader or high-ranking clerics, due to theological restrictions.
11. Iran is a Muslim country
100%
✅
Iran is officially known as the Islamic Republic of Iran.
About 99% of Iranians identify as Muslim.
Religious minorities like Christians, Jews, and Zoroastrians exist, but are heavily restricted in rights and political power.
12. Iran is whatever the opposite of “separation of Church and State” - their leaders are religious leaders
100%
✅
Iran is a theocracy, meaning:
Religious leaders hold the highest authority in the country.
There is no separation between religion and government — in fact, religious law (Sharia) shapes the legal system, elections, and governance.
13. Theocracy is the name of what Iran is
70%
✅
14. Iran has a bigger population than Israel
60%
✅
Idk why I was so conservative!
Country
Population (approximate)
Iran
~89 million
Israel
~9.7 million
15. Israel has a GDP for >150% that of Iran
70%
✅
Country
GDP (nominal, approx.)
Israel
~$525 billion USD
Iran
~$330 billion USD
525 ÷ 330 ≈ 1.59, or 159% — so Israel’s GDP is indeed over 150% of Iran’s.
16. Israel borders Iran
I don’t actually know, but I’d assume they do, just as that would heighten tensions even more
60%
❌
Israel and Iran do not share a border.
They are separated by several countries, including:
Iraq
Jordan
Syria
Turkey (depending on route)
The straight-line distance between Israel and Iran is roughly 1,000–1,200 km (~620–750 miles), depending on the cities used.
17. Israel’s land mass (in square kilometers) is <75% that of the UK
60%
✅
Country
Land Area (sq. km)
Israel
~22,000
United Kingdom
~243,000
22,000 ÷ 243,000 ≈ 0.0905, or about 9%
18. Iran is >3x the landmass size of Israel
80%
✅
Country
Land Area (sq. km)
Iran
~1,648,000
Israel
~22,000
1,648,000 ÷ 22,000 ≈ 74.9, or about 75×
19. Israel’s capital (Tel Aviv) has >3x the population of the next biggest city
80%
❌
City
Population (approx.)
Tel Aviv
~460,000
Jerusalem
~950,000
460,000 ÷ 950,000 ≈ 0.48, or about 48%
So no — Tel Aviv does not have more than 3× the population of the next biggest city.
In fact, Jerusalem is larger than Tel Aviv, both by population and by status (it is also the capital).
London has a population >2x the size of the next biggest city
80%
✅
City
Population (approx.)
London
~9.0 million
Birmingham
~1.15 million
9,000,000 ÷ 1,150,000 ≈ 7.83, or about 783%
So yes — London’s population is more than 2× the size of the next biggest UK city (Birmingham).
Biggest updates
Israel is ~10% the size of the UK! Tiny!
Iran is 75x bigger than Israel, so 7.5x bigger than the UK! Huge!
Jerusalem is the capital of Israel, not Tel Aviv. And it has ~2x the population
Iran isn’t fully complying with the NPT CSA
Woman can be in politics in Iran!
Israel does not border Iran (time to download a world map Anki deck, smdh)