Session 1

  • 2025-06-18
  • Going to read more of Peter Wildeford’s post
  • I now have ~50-100 flashcards about Iran
  • I still don’t know that much about Israel (I’ve got a deep research report but I haven’t read it yet)
  • You know what, yeah, I think I’ll read that & make some flashcards (bottom-up learning) — not knowing much about Israel is a clear blocker atm

Before I read the Israel report, let me write out my model & some predictions

  • Israel has ~10 million inhabitants, ~9x smaller landmass than the UK, capital is Jerusalem (not Tel Aviv!)
  • I think it mayyyy have been officially founded (probably a better word for this) in 1945?
    • 🤔 Israel was founded in 1945 - 60%
  • There’s stuff about settlers encroaching on Palestinian land
  • Jewish people were given the state of Israel post-WWII, but there were already people there. Same as how post WWI the Ottoman Empire was split up and borders were drawn in such a way to lead to lots of issues. Pretty sure this has also happened in Africa, probably Asia too
    • 🤔 The state of Israel was officially created post-WWII - 90%
  • Tel Aviv has a thriving tech scene, and I think Israel is pretty rich
    • Idk how I’d quantify this in a prediction…
    • “Israel is seen as one of the tech capital/startup capitals of the world?” - how do you quantify this? Tech startups per capita? % of the GDP that comes from software?
    • 🤔 Israel is in the top 10 list of “tech countries” - if I google that poorly phrased question, a reputable source will state Israel - 70%
  • Israel gets a lot of support from America, key strategic ally. Why?
    • Because they’re a key beacon of American values (democracy) in the middle East?
    • Because they have oil? (I don’t think so!) Not in significant amounts
    • Because there are lots of Jewish people in America who support Israel?
    • 🤔 Two of the top 4 reasons why Israel is a key US ally are “key beacon of US values” + “domestic support from Americans Jews” - 70%
  • Netanyahu, “Bebe”? “BB”? I hear his full name said on podcasts
    • 🤔 It’s not “BB” - 60%
  • 🤔 Netanyahu is right wing - 90%

The predictions

  1. Israel was founded in 1945 – 60%
    1. ❌ 1948!
  2. The state of Israel was officially created post-WWII – 90%
    • Moreover, its creation was deeply influenced by WWII, especially the Holocaust, which galvanized international support (particularly in the UN and from Western powers) for a Jewish homeland.
  3. Israel is in the top 10 list of “tech countries” – if I google that poorly phrased question, a reputable source will state Israel – 70%
    • Asking ChatGPT how this stuff could be quantified:
      • Startup funding per capita
      • Startups per capita
      • Unicorns per country
      • Percentage of GDP from ICT/software sectors
      • Tech IPOs or exits per year
      • R&D spending as a percentage of GDP
      • Talent density (e.g. developers or CS graduates per capita)
      • Global Innovation Index rank
      • Presence of major tech hubs (e.g. accelerators, VC firms, startup density)
    • I’m gonna look at
      • Startup funding per capita
      • Global Innovation Index
  • VC funding per capita → top 5!
    • Really surprised to see Sweden and Switzerland so high up. And kinda surprised to see the UK in the top 6, as a Brit
  • Global Innovation Index → doesn’t appear!
  • I’m gonna say that I got this ✅ right - 5th highest VC funding per GDP
  1. Two of the top 4 reasons why Israel is a key US ally are “key beacon of US values” + “domestic support from American Jews” – 70%
  2. It’s not “BB” – 60%
    1. It’s Benjamin, or “Bibi”, so I was right that my spelling of BB wasn’t right
  3. Netanyahu is right wing – 90%
    • ✅ party is called Likud

Nice, this took 25 mins

  • Now I can read the Google Gemini deep research report
  • Ok, I’ve read a chunk of it. Will probably need 3+ hours to get my head around the history & make good flashcards. Need to get ready for my work day now, will leave it there